Prices going down ?

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marctee
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Prices going down ?

Post by marctee » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:35 pm

Is it my impression or Model A and T prices are way down ? i was looking to buy a 1930 Model A business coupe , original , offered at $ 7 k thinking that it was a good price but now i see one at teebay that had NO offers at $7k. And here was a Center door, usually the most valuable model T offered at $7k.


OilyBill
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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by OilyBill » Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:08 am

Sad to say, I think Model T prices ARE softening.
Our local Model T club has an annual Christmas party, gift exchange, and club auction in the first week of December. I went in 2017 and there were probably 40-50 people attending. I missed 2018. In 2019 I attended, and the number of people was basically cut in half. I planned on attending this year, but don't know if it will even be held.
We are losing a large number of members to infirmities and death.
The same thing happened in the local HCCA club I was in. Our club, the Old Pueblo Touring Association was an outgrowth of our HCCA Regional Group. At one time, we had 60 members. Numbers dropped so precipitously in the next few years that we disbanded the club in 2015, as we were down to about 6 active members.
If you do not recruit young people, then your antique car club, no matter what the brand, is headed for extinction. I think nearly every automobile club has seen a large decline in membership over the last 20 years. The decline may be slower for the Model T and Model A clubs, because of their car's popularity. But even these will see declines ahead.


Tracer
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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by Tracer » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:49 am

Oddly here in Australia they are going up and up.
I would think about 20-40% in the past couple of years and at a all time high right now just like all cars.

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Henry K. Lee
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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by Henry K. Lee » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:08 am

With a lack of interest by quantity comes lack of desire. Old people die and younger generations may not want to learn, well I say as my father told my brother and I at ages 14 and 12..., "I do not give a damn what you want to do. You are my sons and you will get involved with me and learn. You will stand on your own one day and Thank Me". Not a day goes by that I do not tell him over a cup of coffee.., "Thanks Dad"!

We must promote interest in young members and people in general. It is really not about the dollars spend but the enjoyment with others met (comrades aka partners in crime). Think of how much money you spend on a vacation.., just memories. A Model T.., memories with friends on speed dial to help, parts, and mets. The ultimate vacation to me as you never met a stranger, just a new friends. Yes, this damn virus put a dent in everyones life one way or another, but we will move on. We are a community of great people whom help each other. Promote at all levels..., the interest will come back in time. Your investment at the end you can not buy at any amount.

Just my $0.03,

Hank

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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by TWrenn » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:33 am

Well look... Hank's two cents just went up to THREE!! So that's a good sign! So will car prices. A lot of it right now is possibly due to the uncertainty with this stupid Covid crap, the economy (so far) really has been bouncing back altho may taper off over the winter with the new spike in virus cases. Like Hank said, lack of quantity doesn't help. Right now there just isn't MUCH out there worth looking at. Seems the supply of good early cars especially has dried up, which in itself should increase the value. Supply and demand!


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by Chris Barker » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:49 am

I think we have now passed 'Peak Classic Car', so prices will drift downwards.
Lots of reasons
- young people view cars as 'white goods' (and with what's on offer now, why not?)
- environmental influences, if not pressures, growing slowly
- the prospect of no gas stations about 10 years after electric cars take over - maybe 2040?
- the fashionable (pricy) old cars tend to be the ones that men now aged 50 wanted when they were 14 That's not pre-WW2 Fords!

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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by Hap_Tucker » Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:05 am

I agree that older car prices are generally decreasing and that is usually considered bad by anyone who was looking at them as primarily a monetary investment. But I think it may have a silver lining. As prices fluctuate -- currently more down than up, more people will be able to afford to purchase and enjoy one. And as was pointed out by others above – we can help introduce folks to the hobby by getting our kids, grandkids etc. involved, sharing a ride with folks, inviting folks to check out our hobby, etc.

If anyone wants a Model T or any really old car for that matter primarily as an investment ... there are usually better and safer places to invest that will provide better financial growth. That wasn't always the case. From 1950 to 1990 or so -- T's and other really old cars appreciated in value significantly. My Dad purchased a good 1918 touring for $85 in 1950 it had good sheet metal, solid wood in the body, was in good running shape, had four brand new Ward’s tires and was being used by a college student for basic transportation. My Dad could have always sold that car for more than he paid for it. And it still is in good shape today. I don’t keep it as an investment, but because I enjoy it.

One member that I know from a local T chapter got so disappointed in the drop in value of their restored T and parts that they basically told folks "They aren't worth anything. Don't buy one." - or something along those lines. But I would disagree with that statement. I would say "Don't buy one because you want a high rate of return on your money. (Note some folks can still find an old car that is way under priced, purchase it and turn around and sell it for more money. But that is not what I would say is a goal for most of the folks in the old car hobby.) Instead buy one for an investment in an enjoyable hobby, where you will meet and make friends, have fun, and if you like to tinker - you can actually still work on your car without needing a computer analysis. (Note the computer analysis some folks have done on the T's is great -- but not required to just have fun.)

Depreciation is a part of many areas of life. For example:

Do we purchase a standard new car, truck or even a used one and expect to see it go up in value every year? No, most depreciate. (And clearly some do go up – but that is the exception and why I said standard and not a specialty model. A 1970 Hemi Super Bird is still doing well last time I checked. I had a friend whose Dad had one, and one of my college buddies had a 440 Super Bird. I had a used VW, but I got better gas milage….)

I had a co-worker who had one horse (pre-T -- no, the kind that actually eats hay). When they moved here, they purchased a place with 18 acres, a barn, fields, etc. and 2 more horses. Are they expecting the value of their horses to go up a lot? Not really, they enjoy horses, and that doesn't bother them.

Light airplanes and boats in general also fall into that category. They aren't items a financial advisor would encourage you to put the majority of your retirement savings into. There are likely some exceptions -- but for the normal light airplanes and boats -- people buy them because they enjoy them. They enjoy interacting with the people that share their hobby or even their passion.

Respectfully submitted,

Hap l9l5 cut off


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by Norman Kling » Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:12 am

What has been said above is very true. What I have found is that for those families which have had Model T's handed down or their grandparents and parents have been interested in the cars and taught the kids to drive and maintain, there is great interest. However, with my hobby I took it up about the time I retired and my children were grown and on their own. Those who can drive have had opertunity to drive the car and even a grandson has driven it. At this time all my grandchildren and great grandchildren live many miles from us and there is no interest in any of them to continue with the hobby. Several other families in the club have children and grandchildren who have grown up with the hobby and are continuing in it.
So I think the young model T groups are a very good thing as well as school visits.
The popular cars now seem to be those from the 1950's and upward. Those are the cars the present generation of "older" people remember from their youth.

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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by TRDxB2 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:27 pm

All technology related to the manufacturing and design of most anything has changed over time and with it so have the skills of an individual to work on them. If you were brought up an a farm, then and now, you learned how to repair mechanical objects, weld etc. If you were brought up in a manufacturing city, you may have learned to be a machinist, auto mechanic etc. You may even had been in a high school that had a "Shop" course. Times have changed and the skills to work on most anything now is left to those trained to work on them. Gone are the TV & VCR repairmen, cobblers, switch board operators, "service" station attendants, Doctor's making house calls, elevator operator, Go-Go dancer, Video store owner, secretaries, tool booth attendants... Declining jobs for tool and die makers, data entry clerk, computer operators (monitors computer operations), foundry and core operators, watch repairers ... Think of the effect of what autonomous vehicles may have on cab drivers (including UBER & LYFT), Truck Drivers, they are even talking about pilot-less cargo planes. Car fads have always been the spotlight of car interest for each generation - hot rods, '50 customs, muscle cars, dune buggies, pimp mobiles, low-riders, kit vars, mini truckin, tuner's, rock climbers, rat-rods ...

So where does this leave us. It appears that there has and will always be an interest in automobiles and as the complexity of cars increases the likely hood that the cars for the hobbyist will be the less complex ones. Perhaps that is becoming visible with the interest in rat-rods and speedsters.
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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by Dan B » Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:29 pm

This was recently discussed ad nauseam here:

https://mtfca.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php? ... 86#p115986

I think affordable prices are great for the continuation of the hobby. That’s what we’re in it for....right??
1923 Touring

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Steve Jelf
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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by Steve Jelf » Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:53 pm

Yes, old owners are dying off, as they always have. Some of their cars are inherited and kept by the families, with varying levels of interest. (I'm thinking of a 1926 Fordor within a mile of me that is hardly ever driven.) But many inherited cars are sold off. That means somebody is buying them. Almost daily somebody posts on one of the FB Model T pages about their first Model T which they just bought, asking for help or just showing it off. I haven't kept score on ages, but the new owners range from middle school kids to extremely mature retired people even older than I am. My impression is that most are from their late twenties to their sixties in age.

It's true that local clubs sometimes fold due to the loss of active members and a shortage of new ones. I was a member of the Cherokee Strip Region AACA, now long gone, and the Sunflower State Crankers Model T club, recently folded. But other local clubs carry on and some of them are very active and thriving. I believe both national Model T clubs are doing fine.

The apparent decline in prices is good and bad. For sellers it stinks. But for those new folks looking for their first T it's great, and I think may be good for the spread of the hobby.
The inevitable often happens.
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1923 Touring


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by rickd » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:37 pm

A quick story; earlier this summer I put my 26 Runabout up for sale. A 28 year old young man bought it. I spent a couple of hours with him teaching him how to drive it and maintain it. Then I delivered it to his home in another nearby town in my enclosed trailer. When I backed that Model T out of the trailer the young man, and several of his family members were there. The excitement and the smile on that young mans face was priceless. Yeah, I made a little money on the sale (very little), but seeing that car go to a young man who was excited about his first Model T made it all good. We collect old Fords because we love them. Don't forget that.


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by jiminbartow » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:41 pm

Three generations ago, many of us were first acquainted with Model T’s in the 50’s and 60’s when Laurel and Hardy shorts were released to TV and shown on after-school kiddie shows along with the cartoons. However nice it would be to have a repeat of this phenomenon, television watching, young people, interests, work ethic, and society is not what it once was back in 1960 so a similar re-release of Laurel and Hardy shorts would most likely not have the same effect on interest in the Model T by a new generation.

Interest in the Civil War and history received a boost when Ken Burns did his epic 9 part documentary on the Civil War in 1990. Were he to do the same type of documentary on the dramatic history of Ford with the focus on the development of Model T, I think it would attract a large audience and might generate enough interest to revive our hobby for another generation. Jim Patrick

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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by RustyFords » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:50 pm

I drive my T a lot...and it gets attention just about every time I stop somewhere.

Believe it or not, it's mostly guys my age (51) and younger who come up to me and ask serious questions about the car and about Model T's in general. A lot of them say they'd really like to own something like this and are surprised to find that they're not terribly expensive.

Now here's the good part....I've helped two of these guys (that I met as strangers at a gas station) find their own T's. Both of them are in their 30's. One bought a running car and the other is putting one together (with some of my spare parts being donated to the cause).

So, yes, I do think the market is soft, but the allure of owning THE car that changed the world for MUCH less than a C10 or a tri-five Chevy, or Dodge SuperBee, is a real thing for young guys (and gals).

Both of my "converts" mentioned that they'd seen me driving the car on more than one occasion and it put the thought in their head that this wasn't just a fragile old relic that should be kept in a museum, but rather a real car that could be driven and enjoyed. And...they're right!

p.s.....I haven't "converted" any young ladies....yet. But, that's not to say that they don't come up to the car. They actually outnumber the guys. This old touring car is the biggest chick magnet I've ever owned. It's like hanging out with Brad Pitt or Tom Selleck. Women, of all ages, LOVE this car. My wife just rolls her eyes. But it's true. :lol: :lol: :lol:
1924 Touring

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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by RustyFords » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:00 pm

rickd wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:37 pm
...We collect old Fords because we love them. Don't forget that.
Well said Rick.

(and oh yeah...I spent a year at the lovely Air Force resort that yall have there....this south Texas boy was in shock at the weather)
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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by StanHowe » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:19 pm

I could write a bunch about this but won't . What I will say is that the school my kids went to still has an active shop class and program.
EVERY student beginning in 7th grade takes shop for two years or more. Learn to identify 150 tools, mechanic and woodworking, and use them.
They learn to change oil, change tires, tear down a small engine, build a bird house, etc.
High school shop restores a tractor every year, they learn to weld, basic lathe skills, etc.
As an 8th grader my daughter wanted a scroll saw for Christmas. She could change oil in her 1948 CJ2A , change a tire, etc.
She also has a Henry Golden Boy .22 and a 9mm Kimber and knows how to use them.

Now an Honors Junior in pre-law at Stanford.

Montana is what America was.


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by ThreePedalTapDancer » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:00 pm

It’s the parents job to teach what the schools won’t or can’t. It’s also our job to drive our cars as much as we can, to expose them to curious young minds. We all know someone who has great T’S, in running condition, buried in their garages, never to see the light of day. Each club should have weekend “ thrashes” where a members car is targeted by the group for fixing and rehabbing, including the owner, to motivate them to get them out again. It was nice to see Darel Leopold smiling next to his T, after friends got it running for him again.

https://mtfca.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php? ... 10#p125710


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by fschrope » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:57 pm

StanHowe wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:19 pm
I could write a bunch about this but won't . What I will say is that the school my kids went to still has an active shop class and program.
EVERY student beginning in 7th grade takes shop for two years or more. Learn to identify 150 tools, mechanic and woodworking, and use them.
They learn to change oil, change tires, tear down a small engine, build a bird house, etc.
High school shop restores a tractor every year, they learn to weld, basic lathe skills, etc.
As an 8th grader my daughter wanted a scroll saw for Christmas. She could change oil in her 1948 CJ2A , change a tire, etc.
She also has a Henry Golden Boy .22 and a 9mm Kimber and knows how to use them.

Now an Honors Junior in pre-law at Stanford.

Montana is what America was.
Stan - I agree with everything you say. That is pretty much what I had growing up. I'm just six months younger that you if that tells you anything.

Anyway, this reminds me of a link someone posted somewhere that I spent hours watching. I don't have a link right now, but anyone can do a search and find it - Vietnam Voices - Billings Gazette

They interviewed at least 75 guys - and gal - from Montana that went to Vietnam. Of the group, there were only two that didn't fit and they were imports to Montana. The rest all said they were proud to serve, proud of their country and would do it again. Some came home in one piece - some missing pieces, but still were proud to have served.

I've often wondered what the interviews would be if the kids were from NYC or New England. I'm sure some of them would have been different. One example comes to mind - the Montana kid said there was a kid from NYC that was scared to death of the jungle at night as it was so dark. He'd was terrified. He'd never seen that - or not seen it.

Where in the world am I going with this. Montana folks are different than a lot of the country folks. It's kind of like rural/country kids taken to extreme. Be proud of it.


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by StanHowe » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:34 pm

Well, it's pretty off topic I suppose but the kids in Twin Bridges and my sister's grandchildren seem to me to be a lot like we were growing up 60+++ years ago. Busy, capable, courteous and ambitious.

The school in Twin Bridges has things that are unheard of in a lot of places. A dress code that includes removing your head gear when entering the building; a language code, a behavior code, etc. Lots of kids driving pickups to school, working on them, resurrecting old tractors, etc. They also have a very busy FFA with a little farm where they raise some test crops, bees and chickens. They are still kids but several years ago two boys from a class of 21 were appointed to Military Academy, one to Air Force and one to Navy. Several from last year's class including Nora Humbert are now Marines, she is serving the US for the next four years, two or three boys have already committed to service when they graduate.

Small town America. Rural America. Here is a photo of my girl and her date for the prom in front of the Model T they used for a prop for their "Roaring Twenties" theme. The school is so small they combine with another school a few miles away for prom, switch every year where they have it.

I posted the one of Ayden and Kylie to show that this is rural Montana, he has on a western sport coat, black Wranglers and a hat for prom, Kylie is now serving her second year in the US Air Force where she is a communications specialist stationed in ?? I think maybe overseas but I haven't talked to her mom for awhile. I ran out of room for pictures by Emma, who is now a freshman, wants a Model T. She is Nate's youngest sister, he is the boy in the white coat Savanna is with. Football player, bronc rider, honors student and great kid. I'll put a picture of Emma on the running board in a reply. She's my buddy.
2018 3 16 prom and 240.JPG
2018 3 16 prom and 245.JPG
2018 3 16 prom and 252.JPG
2018 3 16 prom and 302.JPG
2018 3 16 prom and 233.JPG


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by StanHowe » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:48 pm

Emma
2018 3 16 prom and 246.JPG
Sorry, I posted the wrong one of Ayden and Kylie. Here is the one I intended to post.


2018 3 16 prom and 290.JPG


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by StanHowe » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:37 pm

I got a pm from a forum member -- not snarky, just curious -- as to whether Ayden is a real cowboy or just dresses like it.
He and his dad and younger brother all Team Rope, Ayden is ranked. They own a couple nice ranches. He is also a licensed pilot and flies his families 210 and Mooney as well as a Decathlon.
I knew I liked him when he showed up to help us with some stuff driving a 65 International he's restoring and drives and said he was working on a couple early Willys Jeeps.
He is an honors student at MSU.


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by Jerry VanOoteghem » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:15 pm

As to prices going down. My whole life I've heard that same chant, "prices are going down". I'm 55 now. If that had been true all the while, we'd have to pay to get rid of these cars today. Sure seems as if any car I'd like to buy hasn't gone down much! Not gonna worry about it. :|

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Michael Peternell
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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by Michael Peternell » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:22 pm

Well played Stan!

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TRDxB2
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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by TRDxB2 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:07 am

The market price of anything really doesn't matter, its all about what the buyer is willing to pay and what the seller is willing to accept.
The past is a great place and I don't want to erase it or to regret it, but I don't want to be its prisoner either.
Mick Jagger


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by Mark Osterman » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:40 am

I’ve enjoyed reading this recent installment of “prices going down.” I know it’s hard to see them go down when you’ve put so much into your car but very few people ever make restoring a car an investment opportunity. It’s a labor of love and keeping them going is a form of entertainment you have to pay for on a regular basis. I am surprised to see the suggestion of low values on unrestored cars, but rebuilding engines costs a lot and the market is soft. Reminds me of the dwindling interest in model trains in the past twenty years. Still it is great to see “millennials” interested in buying them based on this post. Every single day I drive my T I have someone dumbfounded when I tell them a model T is not rare, they are easy to fix and maintain .. and that parts are plentiful. You can see their wheels turning to figure out how to get one in their own garage. I’ve helped several find younger homes.


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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by Modeltmike » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:00 am

I’ve looked back 40-45 years ago at old magazines at selling prices. At that time there were people collecting T’s that grew up around them and/ or maybe was a first car. The prices for nice cars at that would rival the price of a basic new car. If you add 40-45 years to the model T you now are looking at Mustangs, Cudas, Chevelles. Have a nice one of them and their prices rival a basic new car. Again the people that are collecting grew up around them. I am pleased to see interest from young people. Fortunately prices are reasonable that allow new people in the hobby. I think my wife is the only one concerned with value. She has a plan. My funeral at 10am, Auction starts at noon. 😆

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TWrenn
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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by TWrenn » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:28 am

Great pics and kids Stan!
Sounds like a cool school! Too bad they ALL aren't like that!


StanHowe
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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by StanHowe » Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:43 pm

Thank you. It is a great school and very well supported by the community. There are a lot of good schools everywhere and a lot of great kids. The media tends to focus on the bad ones.
Rural Montana presents its own challenges with distance & economy, many schools have combined sports programs with other schools to get enough players for a team. Transportation costs are horrendous. Kids drive 50 miles or more one way to school, sports games can be two hundred miles away, etc.
I put 16,000 miles on a new Ford focus when Savanna was a jr and senior mostly following her sports an music activity.
We have a lot of two Lane roads, etc, a few years ago the girls state basketball tournament was 650 miles away from one of the teams.
Some of the girls have never seen an interstate highway or a mountain before.
Montana is like three or four different states. Lots of money, movie stars and implants in the west, lots of exclusive resorts. Etc.
Eastern Montana is flat and dry with huge ranches and farms. Pretty well off but isolated.
In between are the cities and colleges, interstates and tourists.
A million people in an area the size of California.
My ranch is 500 miles from where I live.

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George House
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Re: Prices going down ?

Post by George House » Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:10 pm

Very nice looking young couple Stan. I applaud the military and work ethic you portray in them. Now show us a picture of a couple of
Restored U & Js...😜🇱🇷
I don’t know why I turned out this way. My parents were decent people 🤪

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